University of Cambridge > Talks.cam > Cambridge Centre for Analysis talks > Tennis Forecasting 101: Models, monotonicity, and the maths of match-fixing

Tennis Forecasting 101: Models, monotonicity, and the maths of match-fixing

Add to your list(s) Download to your calendar using vCal

  • UserDr Tim Paulden, ATASS Sports
  • ClockTuesday 20 November 2018, 16:00-17:00
  • HouseMR15.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact CCA.

Industrial seminar

In this talk, Dr Tim Paulden (ATASS Sports) will introduce the classic tennis modelling challenge of converting world rankings into win probabilities, and demonstrate that a relatively new technique called SCAM (shape-constrained additive modelling) can “automatically” generate competitive predictions that respect the problem’s monotonicity constraints. Several higher-level modelling concepts will also be discussed, including the perils of overfitting. Finally, Dr Paulden will summarise ATASS Sports’ recent work on detecting match fixing in tennis, which featured in the Royal Statistical Society’s “Significance” magazine in 2016, and has since evolved into a successful PhD research project.

The talk will begin from first principles – no previous knowledge of modelling is assumed!

This talk is part of the Cambridge Centre for Analysis talks series.

Tell a friend about this talk:

This talk is included in these lists:

Note that ex-directory lists are not shown.

 

© 2006-2019 Talks.cam, University of Cambridge. Contact Us | Help and Documentation | Privacy and Publicity