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Analysing effects of short- and long-term uncertainty on capacity expansion in European electricity markets

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MESW02 - Electricity systems of the future: incentives, regulation and analysis for efficient investment

The EMPIRE model is a European multiscale power market model with investments towards 2050 as well as representative hours. It is well suited to capture operational uncertainty in generation from intermittent energy sources like wind and sun. In the short-run  horizon, typical uncertainty  is in load, intermittent generation and inflows to hydro reservoirs. Short-run sources of flexibility are regulated hydropower, storages, fossil generators and demand response. In the long run uncertain factors include  learning curves, policy uncertainty, long-term commodity process and demand trends. In this paper we add long-term uncertainty to the formulation. The resulting models are large scale stochastic multi-stage recourse models with hundred of millions of variables. We present both solution methods and analysis of the most important factors. In the short-run  horizon, typical uncertainty  is in load, intermittent generation and inflows to hydro reservoirs. Short-run sources of flexibility are regulated hydropower, storages, fossil generators and demand response. In the long run uncertain factors include  learning curves, policy uncertainty, long-term commodity process and demand trends. We look at the European level and analyze questions like to  what extent the demand response potential can facilitate an optimal transition to an European low emission power system and how does long-term uncertainty affect the investments in renewables.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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