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Simulation of UK land-use policy using integrated environment-economy models

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By and large, exploration of land use change using integrated environment-economy models has tended to focus on the analysis of scenarios or on the exploration of locations where land use change might deliver desired outcomes. Of course, determining where best to change land use and actually achieving that change using the policy levers open to decision-makers are two different things. In this talk we present methods and results from a series of on-going projects, that use integrated environment-economy models to examine the question of 'best' policy design. Methodologically the key innovations of the research revolve around the application of mathematical programming to identify 'best' policies, the use of agent-based modelling to examine outcomes for policies that place land owners in situations of strategic interaction and the application of methods of robust optimisation to examine decision-making under uncertainty. Our applications focus on land use change, particularly those relating to the deintensification of agriculture for multiple environmental gains and the expansion of biocrops and forest to achieve carbon reduction targets.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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