Contributed Talk 7: Parameter Estimation for a Non-Neutral Evolutionary Process

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• Tunnicliffe, A (University of Cambridge)
• Wednesday 29 October 2014, 10:30-10:45
• Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Mustapha Amrani.

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Even with multiple time-point sampling, the estimation of the rate parameters which drive an evolutionary process can be difficult. Many existing methods work by fitting models with strong simplifying assumptions, such as fixed population size, discrete time steps between events, or a limited number of competing groups. In most cases the process is also modelled as neutral, wherein each group has equal fitness and survival or extinction are entirely down to luck. We aim to fit a more realistic model based on a birth-death process that is augmented to include both mutations which create new groups and relative fitness values for each group. We then develop a Monte Carlo method that separates simulation of the total population amount from that of the internal evolutionary dynamics, thereby increasing its overall sampling efficiency. The model and method are applied to a dataset taken from a long term E coli experiment where colony size and composition were sampled over ti me.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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