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Modelling the Risks of Climate Change

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If you have a question about this talk, please contact Dr Simon Taylor Director of the Master of Finance Programme.

Dr Chris Hope was the specialist advisor to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs Inquiry into aspects of the economics of climate change, and an advisor on the PAGE model to the Stern review on the Economics of Climate Change.

At the time of the Stern review, Lord Stern called climate change the greatest market failure the world has ever seen. We know this because of the development and use of Integrated Assessment Models which tell us how the climate might change in the future and what the impacts of those changes will be. Any actions that we take to tackle climate change should be based on a foundation of a strong, comprehensive, rising price on carbon dioxide emissions. Integrated Assessment Models can tell us what that price should be.

This talk will describe the results from the PAGE09 Integrated Assessment Model which has been used to address these issues in the Stern review and by the US Environmental Protection Agency.

The Arctic has been warming at roughly twice the pace of the rest of the world. Dr Hope will also talk about how a better understanding of recent developments in the Arctic, such as the potential for the release of carbon dioxide and methane from thawing permafrost, can help us to calculate a more complete global bill for future climate change.

This talk is part of the CJBS Events series.

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