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CATEGORIES:Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series
SUMMARY:A network epidemic model with preventive rewiring:
comparative analysis of the initial phase - Tom B
ritton (Stockholm University)
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20161213T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20161213T103000
UID:TALK69474AThttp://talks.cam.ac.uk
URL:http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/69474
DESCRIPTION: Co-authors: Joan Saldana (Univers
itat de Girona)\, David Juher (Universitat de Gi
rona)
 \;
This talk
is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemi
c models on random networks in which individuals
may rewire away from infected neighbors at some r
ate &omega\; (and reconnect to non-infectious indi
viduals with probability &alpha\; or else simply
drop the edge if &alpha\;=0)\, so-called preventi
ve rewiring. The models are denoted SIR-&omega\; a
nd SEIR-&omega\;\, and we focus attention on the
early stages of an outbreak\, where we derive exp
ression for the basic reproduction number R0 and t
he expected degree of the infectious nodes E(DI)
using two different approximation approaches. The
first approach approximates the early spread of a
n epidemic by a branching process\, whereas the s
econd one uses pair approximation. The expression
s are compared with the corresponding empirical m
eans obtained from stochastic simulations of SIR-&
omega\; and SEIR-&omega\; epidemics on Poisson an
d scale-free networks. To appear in Bull Math Bio
l.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
CONTACT:INI IT
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