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Evaluating survey designs for inference of Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence

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We present a tool designed to aid planning of community-based Plasmodium falciparum prevalence surveys. The tool is based on a probability model featuring a spatiotemporal Gaussian random field and the most comprehensive contemporary P. falciparum prevalence dataset available. It allows users to design surveys in a simple Google Earth-based interface, then computes updated maps of the remaining uncertainty and predictive distributions for one or more utility metrics given that the surveys will be carried out. The expectation propagation algorithm makes it possible to approximate the required updates to the posterior in a reasonable amount of time.

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