FARIMA modeling of solar flare activity from empirical time series of soft X-ray solar emission
- 👤 Speaker: K.Burnecki and A. Weron (Wroclaw University of Technology)
- 📅 Date & Time: Tuesday 11 November 2008, 14:00 - 15:00
- 📍 Venue: British Antarctic Survey, Room 330B
Abstract
A time series of soft X-ray emission observed by the GOES satellites from 1974-2007 is analyzed. We show that in the periods of high solar activity the energy distribution of soft X-ray solar flares for M and C classes is well described by a FARIMA model with Pareto noise. The model incorporates two effects detected in our empirical studies. One of them is a long-term dependence (long-term memory), and another corresponds to heavy-tailed distributions. Finally, we address a challenging problem of how to build a proper physical model for analyzing fractional dynamics (Langevin or Fokker–Planck) with long-range dependence of empirical data sets.
Series This talk is part of the British Antarctic Survey series.
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K.Burnecki and A. Weron (Wroclaw University of Technology)
Tuesday 11 November 2008, 14:00-15:00