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Mathematical Modelling of Arbovirus Outbreak Dynamics in Fiji

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Diseases spread by the Aedes genus of mosquitoes are some of the fastest growing and fastest spreading viral pathogens in the world, including in Fiji and the wider Pacific. I conducted a serological survey in Fiji in 2017 and used these serological data, combined with mathematical modelling, to analyse transmission dynamics of arboviruses in Fiji. I found a diverse range of outbreak dynamics and serological responses to outbreaks of closely related dengue and Zika viruses in the same location. I found that both viruses can cause low level multi-year outbreaks as well as large single season epidemics. Despite these challenges, mathematical modelling can improve our understanding of arbovirus outbreak dynamics such that it is possible to accurately forecast outbreak dynamics in real-time.

This talk is part of the PDG Seminars (Pathogen Dynamics Group) series.

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