Abstract

Many Antarctic margin processes are changing including accelerated rates of ice sheet mass loss and a slowdown in the production of dense bottom waters. Although these changes are localised around the Antarctic continent, they have the potential to remotely disrupt downstream processes of climatic importance via advective connections along the shelf. In the first part of this talk I will present some work from my PhD thesis that investigates ocean connectivity around the Antarctic margins from a modelling perspective. The results from this work suggest there is widespread zonal connectivity between adjacent regions of the shelf, and that such connectivity is important to consider when interpreting and linking observed changes with upstream drivers. In the second part of the talk I will present results from simulations that investigate future climate-driven changes to Antarctic margin processes under different emission scenarios, with and without future freshwater contributions. Such changes are poorly constrained because many climate models fail to adequately resolve key features of the Antarctic margin including the narrow westward flowing currents, and the formation of both dense and abyssal water masses. Results from these simulations suggest that even under a mid-range emissions scenario without additional meltwater forcing, substantial changes in Antarctic continental shelf circulation and hydrography are possible by the end of this century.