Geodetic Insights into the Earthquake Cycle on the East Anatolian Fault
- 👤 Speaker: Seda Özarpacı (Yıldız Technical University/ İstanbul Türkiye)
- 📅 Date & Time: Wednesday 28 January 2026, 14:00 - 15:00
- 📍 Venue: Wolfson Lecture Theatre
Abstract
The East Anatolian Fault (EAF) is a major left-lateral plate boundary between Anatolia and Arabia and, together with the North Anatolian Fault, accommodates the westward motion of Anatolia at ~10 mm/yr. Here, I present a geodetic perspective on the earthquake cycle along the eastern EAF , spanning interseismic deformation, coseismic rupture, and ongoing postseismic transients. Using near-fault and far-field GNSS observations (2015–2020), complemented by in situ creep measurements from creepmeters installed within a tunnel crossing the fault near Palu, we identify widespread shallow aseismic slip along the Palu segment within the Elazığ–Bingöl seismic gap, with local creep rates approaching the long-term plate motion. The 24 January 2020 Mw 6.8 Sivrice (Elazığ) earthquake then provided a unique opportunity to link interseismic coupling to coseismic behavior: joint kinematic modelling using strong-motion, GNSS , teleseismic waveforms, and InSAR shows that rupture was confined to ~45 km of the ~95 km Sivrice–Pütürge segment, initiating near a weakly coupled creeping section and propagating unilaterally southwestward without producing surface rupture. Following the 2020 event, we densified GNSS monitoring across the Pütürge segment to capture postseismic deformation; however, the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes revealed an even broader deformation footprint. Leveraging Türkiye’s continuous GNSS network, we show that these events produced far-field displacements extending beyond 700 km, exceeding predictions from standard elastic dislocation models and implying plate-scale interactions with important consequences for seismic hazard assessment. I will conclude by presenting our ongoing efforts to resolve and interpret the postseismic deformation following the 2023 sequence using GNSS time series along the EAF .
Series This talk is part of the Bullard Laboratories Wednesday Seminars series.
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Seda Özarpacı (Yıldız Technical University/ İstanbul Türkiye)
Wednesday 28 January 2026, 14:00-15:00