Abstract

Volcanic eruptions have a significant potential to affect the climate system, the environment and society. In this talk, I will address the importance of tropospheric volcanic aerosol ­ whether derived from continuously degassing volcanoes or large-scale Icelandic flood lava events ­ for global aerosol, radiative forcing of climate and public health.

Using a global aerosol microphysics model (GLOMAP) together with volcanological datasets I will show that a future long-lasting Icelandic Laki-type eruption has the potential to substantially degrade air quality across Europe. Using current epidemiological evidence, I quantify the pollution-induced public health hazard that could arise if such an eruption recurred. I will show that, based on the predicted changes in particulate matter concentrations, up to 142,000 additional cardiopulmonary fatalities could occur in Europe. Such a volcanic air pollution event would therefore be a severe health hazard, increasing excess mortality in Europe on a scale that exceeds mortality due to seasonal influenza.

I will also discuss the importance of continuously degassing volcanoes such as Mt. Etna in Italy for global aerosol and estimates of the anthropogenic cloud albedo forcing.