Abstract

Infectious diseases will be eliminated and replaced by chronic, lifestyle diseases as fertility falls, life expectancy increases, and populations grow old. This is the standard story of the epidemiologic transition, but it hasnt turned out as we imagined. Even the massive effort to contain major infections especially HIV /AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria within the framework of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) has left much unfinished business. As we approach the 2015 deadline for reaching the MDGs, the selection of a new set of development goals has become a matter for intense debate. In this talk I will consider how the analysis of infectious disease epidemiology and control has influenced, and been influenced by, the changing landscape of public health over the past two decades, and how infections might figure in the post-2015 agenda. Among the topics for discussion will be the domination of the big three, the quest for eradication, the failure of health systems analysis, and the place of infection in a new era of sustainable development.