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Sleeping Beauty and the Armchair Cosmologist

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If you have a question about this talk, please contact David MacKay.

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To some astrophysicists, `the anthropic principle’ is just a matter of simple conditional probability. They say `Just as we observe stars, supernovae, jets, and so forth, then infer the parameters of our cosmological models, similarly, the ``observation’’ that we are here induces a posterior distribution over models’. Others feel uncomfortable with this sort of anthropic reasoning. I’ll present a few versions of the ‘Sleeping Beauty’ problem, some with a cosmological flavour.

This talk is part of the Inference Group series.

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