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Statistical Modelling in Tennis: a Case Study Using World Rankings

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Part of the TCSS Symposium

In recent years, statistical modelling has played an increasingly important role in the sports industry – from player evaluation systems and tactical decision tools used by team managers (as popularised by films such as Moneyball) to predictive models deployed by bookmakers and gamblers to forecast future results. In this talk I will demonstrate that simple statistical methods – combined with a healthy dose of pragmatism – can generate surprisingly powerful models for predicting tennis… and explain how a pure mathematician came to be working on them.

This talk is part of the Trinity Mathematical Society series.

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