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Novel Facts

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FOSW01 - The nature of questions arising in court that can be addressed via probability and statistical methods

According to scenario-based approaches to the assessment of evidence courts should compare different scenarios. More in particular they should investigate whether and to what extent different scenarios are capable of explaining the available evidence. Scenario-based approaches emphasize the importance of evidence that discriminates between scenarios.

In my presentation I hypothesize that the criterion of discriminating facts might be too weak in some cases and too strong in others. I investigate whether and how the criterion of novel facts can play a role next to the criterion of discriminating facts. My question is whether and if so how Bayesian analysis, more specifically Bayesian Networks, can help to clarify the relevance of novel facts and to make application of the criteria of discriminating and of novel facts feasible for courts

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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