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University of Cambridge > Talks.cam > Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series > Elicitation of Priors in Bayesian Modeling of DNA Evidence

## Elicitation of Priors in Bayesian Modeling of DNA EvidenceAdd to your list(s) Download to your calendar using vCal - William Thompson (University of California, Irvine)
- Tuesday 08 November 2016, 10:15-11:00
- Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute.
If you have a question about this talk, please contact INI IT. FOSW03 - Statistical modelling of scientific evidence Bayesian networks have been helpful for analyzing the probative value of complex forms of forensic DNA evidence, but some of these network models require experts to estimate the prior probability of specific events. This talk discusses procedures that might be used for elicitation of priors with an eye toward minimizing bias and error. As an illustration it uses a model proposed by Biedermann, Taroni & Thompson (2011) to deal with situations in which the “inclusion” of the suspect as a possible contributor to a mixed DNA sample depends on the value of an unknown variable. (Biedermann, A., Taroni, F. & Thompson, W.C. Using graphical probability analysis (Bayes nets) to evaluate a conditional DNA inclusion. Law, Probability and Risk, 10: 89-121, 2011). This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series. ## This talk is included in these lists:- All CMS events
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