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Long Range Predictability of the winter atmosphere in the North Atlantic Sector.

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If you have a question about this talk, please contact Dr Gillian Young .

If external to BAS, please email the organiser in advance to gain access to the building

Skilful climate predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation have recently been demonstrated for seasonal to interannual lead times. A large proportion of this skill is driven by highly skilful seasonal tropical rainfall predictions, which in turn lead to extratropical atmospheric circulation anomalies that project onto the NAO and are approximately symmetric about the equator, resembling steady poleward propagating linear Rossby waves. This mechanism explains a sizable fraction of the predicted variation in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and appears to be responsible for the recent extreme winters of 2013/14 and 2015/16. I will also present an update on the intriguing “signal to noise paradox”, whereby predictable signals in the climate model appear to be smaller than predictable signals in the real world.

This talk is part of the British Antarctic Survey series.

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