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SUMMARY:Adversarial Risk Analysis: A Smallpox Example - David Banks (Duke 
 University)
DTSTART:20080208T140000Z
DTEND:20080208T150000Z
UID:TALK10283@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:8048
DESCRIPTION:Classical risk analysis has focused on situations whose outcom
 es are determined entirely by probability. Classical game theory has focus
 ed on situations in which the only uncertainty is the action of an intelli
 gent opponent. This talk combines both methodologies and applies them in t
 he context of preparation for a hypothetical bioterrorist attack using sma
 llpox. The talk draws upon experience in the federal government and an upc
 oming National Academies advisory report to the Department of Homeland Sec
 urity\, and points up the advantages of the Kadane-Larkey Bayesian formula
 tion of game theory\, particularly in the context of portfolio analysis.
LOCATION:MR12\, CMS\, Wilberforce Road\, Cambridge\, CB3 0WB
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