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SUMMARY:MSG Design of Experiments Seminar Series: Simulation-based Bayesia
 n experimental design for computationally intensive models - Xun Huan (San
 dia National Laboratories\; University of Michigan)
DTSTART:20180620T135500Z
DTEND:20180620T144500Z
UID:TALK106939@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:Selecting and performing experiments that produce the most use
 ful data  is extremely valuable in engineering and science applications wh
 ere  experiments are costly and resources are limited. Simulation-based  e
 xperimental design thus provides a rigorous mathematical framework to  sys
 tematically quantify and maximize the value of experiments while  leveragi
 ng the existing knowledge and predictive capability of an  available model
 . &nbsp\;We are particularly interested in design settings that  accommoda
 te nonlinear and computationally intensive models\, such as  those governe
 d by ordinary and partial differential equations. Employing  principles fr
 om Bayesian statistics to characterize and quantify  uncertainty\, we seek
  experiments that maximize the expected information  gain. Computing these
  optimal designs using conventional approaches\,  however\, is generally i
 ntractable. Major challenges include high  dimensional parameter spaces\, 
 expensive model simulations\, and numerical  approximation and optimizatio
 n of the expected information gain. We  thus describe practical numerical 
 methods to help overcome these  obstacles\, including global sensitivity a
 nalysis\, surrogate modeling via  polynomial chaos\, and stochastic optimi
 zation. &nbsp\;The overall methodology  is demonstrated through the design
  of combustion experiments for  optimal learning of chemical rate paramete
 rs\, and of configurations for a  supersonic jet engine to obtain measurem
 ents most informative on  turbulent flow parameters.<br>
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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