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SUMMARY:Rapid loss of immunity is necessary to explain historical cholera 
 epidemics - Ed Ionides\, University of Michigan
DTSTART:20080508T152000Z
DTEND:20080508T163000Z
UID:TALK11900@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Ken Eames
DESCRIPTION:Survivors of severe cholera infections receive long-lasting im
 munity to reinfection. The epidemiological significance of this immunity i
 s unclear\, however\, due to the large fraction of cholera cases that are 
 mild or asymptomatic. We analyzed 50 years of cholera mortality data from 
 26 districts in historic Bengal using mechanistic models and recently-deve
 loped likelihood-based inference techniques. Our models fit the data drama
 tically better than all previously presented models and robustly predict t
 hat most exposures result not in infection but in short-term immunity\, wh
 ich wanes on a timescale of weeks to months. Our results suggest a new mod
 el structure for diseases with inapparent infection and a new focus for fu
 ture investigations of cholera immunology and control.
LOCATION:Meeting room 15\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
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