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SUMMARY:Optimal storage\, investment and management under uncertainty - It
  is costly to avoid outages! - Richard Green (Imperial College London)
DTSTART:20190318T134500Z
DTEND:20190318T143000Z
UID:TALK121150@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:We show how electricity storage is operated optimally when the
  load net of renewable output is uncertain. We estimate a diurnal Markov-p
 rocess representation of this residual load in Germany in 2011 to 2015 on 
 an hourly basis and design a simple dynamic stochastic electricity system 
 model with non-intermittent generation technologies and storage. We derive
  the optimal storage\, generator output and capacity levels. If storage ca
 pacity replaces some generation capacity\, the optimal storage strategy mu
 st balance arbitrage (between periods of high and low marginal cost) again
 st precautionary storage to ensure energy is available throughout a long p
 eak in net demand. We then solve the model numerically under realistic con
 ditions and compare the results to perfect foresight findings. We show tha
 t a perfect foresight model would over-estimate the cost-saving potential 
 of energy storage by 18%\, as it takes up arbitrage opportunities that ign
 ore the need for precautionary storage.Joint work with Joachim Geske.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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