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SUMMARY:BSU Virtual Seminar: 'A Simulation-Free Approach To Assessing the 
 Performance of the Continual Reassessment Method' - Professor Thomas Braun
 \, School of Public Health\, University of Michigan\, USA
DTSTART:20210223T140000Z
DTEND:20210223T150000Z
UID:TALK157159@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Alison Quenault
DESCRIPTION:The Continual Reassessment Method (CRM) is an adaptive design 
 for Phase I trials whose operating characteristics\, including appropriate
  sample size\, probability of correctly identifying the maximum tolerated 
 dose\, and the expected proportion of participants assigned to each dose\,
  can only be determined via simulation\, as process that can take several 
 hours\, depending upon the goals of the simulation.  To that end\, we have
  developed an approach that replaces a simulation study of thousands of hy
 pothetical trials with a single simulation. Our approach\, which is founde
 d on the consistency of the CRM\, very accurately reflects the results pro
 duced by a simulation study\, but in a fraction of the time. Relative to t
 raditional simulations\, we extensively examine how our method is able to 
 assess the operating characteristics of a CRM design for a hypothetical tr
 ial whose characteristics are based upon a previously published Phase I tr
 ial. We also provide a metric of nonconsistency and demonstrate that altho
 ugh nonconsistency can impact the operating characteristics of our method\
 , the degree of over- or under-estimation is unpredictable. As a solution\
 , we provide an algorithm for maintaining the consistency of a chosen CRM 
 design so that our method is applicable for any trial.  It is hoped that t
 hese methods lead to extensions that are applied to more complex Phase I d
 esigns.
LOCATION:Virtual Seminar 
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