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SUMMARY:Natural variability of faults and earthquakes over a range of temp
 oral scales\, and the implications for seismic hazard - Zoe Mildon -- Univ
 ersity of Plymouth
DTSTART:20231108T160000Z
DTEND:20231108T170000Z
UID:TALK205375@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Lisanne Jagt
DESCRIPTION:Observations of field exposures of active faults and historica
 l/instrumental records of earthquakes all point towards earthquakes being 
 complex phenomena\, which makes quantifying probabilistic seismic hazard a
  challenge. Furthermore\, the behaviour of an individual fault or fault sy
 stem may vary depending on the timescales over which we observe and collec
 t data.\n\nIn this talk\, I will present a range of studies from my resear
 ch\, spanning timescales of observations of years to millions of years. Mo
 st of my work focusses on extensional systems in the Mediterranean\, parti
 cularly central Italy and the Gulf of Corinth – having been inspired dur
 ing my Cambridge undergraduate 4th year fieldtrip to Greece!\n\nCentral It
 aly has a 700 year record of devastating earthquakes\, including most rece
 ntly the 2016 Amatrice earthquake sequence. This sequence was fascinating 
 for several reasons\, including its spatial and temporal pattern\, the ass
 ociated surface ruptures and the fact it occurred on a fault that was a 
 “debated seismogenic source” that had not ruptured in ~2-4kyr. Using 3
 6Cl cosmogenic dating on the causative fault\, we have shown that the slip
  rate of this fault (as well as other nearby faults) is variable over the 
 Holocene (15±3kyrs)\, and we attempt to understand the physical mechanism
  that is controlling the observed slip rate variations.\n\nThe extend our 
 timescales of observation beyond field-based studies\, we have begun to us
 e 3D seismic reflection surveys from inactive rift systems to explore how 
 slip rates vary over millions of years\, on both individual faults and acr
 oss fault networks. This work is part of my UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship
  project Quake4D\, which aims to combine geological observations with phys
 ics-based numerical modelling to explore a wider range of earthquake scena
 rios than would be possible using observations alone.\n\nFrom the range of
  timescales studied\, a common theme is that fault slip rates are variable
 . This raises important questions about the use of fault slip rates\, whet
 her derived from geology or geodesy\, in fault-based probabilistic seismic
  hazard assessment.
LOCATION:Wolfson Lecture Theatre
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