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SUMMARY:Improved statistical estimation of impact sensitivity - Dennis Chr
 istensen\, Oslo\, Norway
DTSTART:20231018T140000Z
DTEND:20231018T150000Z
UID:TALK205858@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Stephen Walley
DESCRIPTION:Accurate estimation of impact sensitivity is crucial for safe 
 production\, handling\, storage and transport of energetic materials. Of p
 articular interest is the median h50\, namely the impact energy level at w
 hich there is a probability of 50% of an explosion occurring. This value h
 as been shown to correlate with quantum chemical properties of the energet
 ic material in question\, providing insight into the underlying causes whi
 ch govern sensitivity. However\, in practical applications\, it may be mor
 e important to estimate extreme values like the 99% quantile h99. In addit
 ion to providing point estimates\, we would like to derive confidence inte
 rvals to address their uncertainty. However\, NATO's official recommended 
 procedure for estimating impact sensitivity is based on a pen-and-paper ap
 proximation from the late 1940s and is not suitable for estimating extreme
  quantiles nor for deriving any confidence intervals. In this talk we go t
 hrough the optimal ways of estimating all quantiles and deriving confidenc
 e intervals for sensitivity data. We will see how these yield more insight
  into the data obtained from experiments by means of confidence curves\, w
 hich provide a useful graphical summary of confidence intervals at all pos
 sible confidence levels. An example with the explosive HMX is given.
LOCATION:Mott Seminar Room\, Cavendish Laboratory
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