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SUMMARY:Treatment Effects in Market Equilibrium - Stefan Wager (Stanford U
 niversity)
DTSTART:20240923T130000Z
DTEND:20240923T140000Z
UID:TALK219088@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Qingyuan Zhao
DESCRIPTION:Policy-relevant treatment effect estimation in marketplace set
 ting requires taking into account both the direct benefit of the treatment
  and any spillovers induced by changes to the market equilibrium. The stan
 dard way to address these challenges is to evaluate interventions via clus
 ter-randomized experiments\, where each cluster corresponds to an isolated
  market. This approach\, however\, cannot be used when we only have access
  to a single market (or a small number of markets). Here\, we show how to 
 identify and estimate policy-relevant treatment effects using a unit-level
  randomized trial run within a single large market. A standard Bernoulli-r
 andomized trial allows consistent estimation of direct effects\, and of tr
 eatment heterogeneity measures that can be used for welfare-improving targ
 eting. Estimating spillovers--as well as providing confidence intervals fo
 r the direct effect--requires estimates of price elasticities\, which we p
 rovide using an augmented experimental design. Our results rely on all spi
 llovers being mediated via the (observed) prices of a finite number of tra
 ded goods\, and the market power of any single unit decaying as the market
  gets large. We illustrate our results using a simulation calibrated to a 
 conditional cash transfer experiment in the Philippines.\n\nhttps://arxiv.
 org/abs/2109.11647
LOCATION:Centre for Mathematical Sciences MR12\, CMS
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