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SUMMARY:Predictability of midlatitude weather: Butterflies\, error growth 
 and AI models - Professor George Craig (LMU\, Munich)
DTSTART:20240920T143000Z
DTEND:20240920T153000Z
UID:TALK220984@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:9780
DESCRIPTION:Numerical weather forecasts have been improving steadily for 5
 0 years\, and this improvement has accelerated in the last two years throu
 gh the application of machine learning to weather prediction. But predicta
 bility is believed to be intrinsically limited by the chaotic dynamics of 
 the underlying equations of motion - the butterfly effect. This talk will 
 briefly review the Lorenz theories of predictability\, and present some re
 cent research to determine more precisely how they apply to the atmosphere
 . With this knowledge we evaluate the performance of four recent AI weathe
 r models at the limit of predictability.
LOCATION:MR2\,  Centre for Mathematical Sciences\, Wilberforce Road\, Camb
 ridge
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