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SUMMARY:The mortality consequences of rainfall and sea level rise in a dev
 eloping megacity - Tom Bearpark
DTSTART:20250704T120000Z
DTEND:20250704T130000Z
UID:TALK233500@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:J.W.Stevens
DESCRIPTION:"Link to draft here":https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/gogp3jj5sc
 9kn5k1gsn4b/MANUSCRIPT.pdf?rlkey=13lrgosek2d4ft0dea1qvcgfj&e=1&st=ebql2yn7
 &dl=0\n\nRainfall and flooding frequently disrupt the lives of urban resid
 ents worldwide\, posing significant public health risks. Rapid urbanisatio
 n is exposing larger and more vulnerable populations to these hazards\, wh
 ile climate change intensifies rainfall patterns and rising sea levels imp
 air drainage systems. Despite the growing recognition and urgency of these
  hazards\, the health impacts of rainfall remain poorly understood\, and t
 hose of sea level rise are entirely unquantified. Without robust quantific
 ation\, we lack a complete understanding of the health risks posed by weat
 her and climate change\, particularly in rapidly growing megacities where 
 vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected. Here\, we estimate
  the mortality consequences of rainfall in one of the world’s largest ci
 ties – Mumbai\, India. We integrate high-resolution data on rainfall\, t
 ides\, and mortality\, to analyse how unmanaged rainfall and its interacti
 on with tidal dynamics contribute to urban health risks. We find that rain
 fall causes more than 8% of Mumbai’s deaths during the monsoon season\, 
 and that more than 80% of this burden is borne by slum-residents. We also 
 find that children face the biggest increase in mortality risk from rainfa
 ll\, and women face a greater risk than men. Additionally\, we demonstrate
  that mortality risk from rainfall increases sharply during high tides and
  use this relationship to evaluate how rising sea levels could amplify rai
 nfall-induced mortality in the absence of adaptation. Our findings reveal 
 that the mortality impacts of rainfall are an order of magnitude larger th
 an is documented by official statistics\, highlighting the urgent need for
  investment in improved drainage\, sanitation\, and waste management infra
 structure\, particularly in cities in the Global South. Moreover\, our ana
 lysis highlights that the health costs of rainfall and sea level rise are 
 a critical omission in current projections of climate change impacts.\n\n"
 *Join online seminar here*":https://cam-ac-uk.zoom.us/j/85806391168?pwd=dr
 UmBMyes9nyDFJ3azyms30NMBnZzC.1
LOCATION: Centre for Mathematical Sciences\, Meeting Room 14 & Virtual
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