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SUMMARY:Diffusion in Networks and Infectious Disease Epidemics - Volz\, E 
 (Michigan)
DTSTART:20100625T104500Z
DTEND:20100625T113000Z
UID:TALK25335@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mustapha Amrani
DESCRIPTION:I review several special cases of epidemics spreading through 
 random networks which reduce to\nsimple solutions based on ordinary differ
 ential equations. This reveals a link between traditional\nmass action mod
 els of epidemics in which contacts are instantaneous and uncorrelated\, an
 d networks\nwhich have dynamically rearranging ties. I then present severa
 l applications to HIV and\nInfluenza. A simple modification to our equatio
 ns allows us to model sero-sorting of HIV positive\nindividuals\, which is
  the tendency to rearrange relationships to those with matching infection 
 status.\nOther extensions to the model are explored\, including diffusion 
 in networks with clustering\n(transitivity)\, and heterogeneous susceptibi
 lity and infectiousness. We find that ODE approximations\nusing probabilit
 y generating functions are more precise and computationally tractable than
 \ncorresponding systems based on pair approximation.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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