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SUMMARY:Current use of stochastic methods in operational NWP/climate forec
 asting: are they physically justifiable - Shutts\, G (Met Office)
DTSTART:20100823T154500Z
DTEND:20100823T164500Z
UID:TALK25889@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mustapha Amrani
DESCRIPTION:The physical basis for current methods of stochastic parametri
 zation in NWP/climate models is reviewed and their plausibility assessed w
 ith respect to unresolved or near-gridscale meteorological phenomena. This
  issue is closely related to that of the predictability of convective scal
 e and mesoscale weather systems. The coarse-graining strategy is described
  and applied to high-resolution NWP model forecast output and cloud-resolv
 ing model simulations of deep\, tropical convection. The results are used 
 to provide some constraints on the stochastic backscatter and the perturbe
 d physical tendency approaches. 
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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