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SUMMARY:Delivering local-scale climate scenarios for impact assessments - 
 Semenov\, M (Rothamsted Research)
DTSTART:20100825T130000Z
DTEND:20100825T140000Z
UID:TALK25890@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mustapha Amrani
DESCRIPTION:Process-based models\, used in assessment of impact of climate
  change\, require daily weather as one of their main inputs. The direct us
 e of climate predictions from global or regional climate models could be p
 roblematic\, because the coarse spatial resolution and large uncertainty i
 n their output at a daily scale\, particularly for precipitation. Output f
 rom a climate model requires application of various downscaling techniques
 \, such as weather generator (WG). WG is a model which\, after calibration
  of site parameters with observed weather\, is capable of simulating synth
 etic daily weather that are statistically similar to observed. By altering
  the site parameters using changes in climate predicted from climate model
 s\, it is possible to generate daily weather for the future. A dataset\, E
 LPIS\, of local-scale daily climate scenarios for Europe has been develope
 d. This dataset is based on 25 km grids of interpolated daily precipitatio
 n\, minimum and maximum temperatures and radiation from the European Crop 
 Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) meteorological dataset and climate predict
 ions from the multi-model ensemble of 15 global climate models that were u
 sed in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. The site parameters for the distrib
 utions of climatic variables have been estimated by the LARS-WG weather ge
 nerator for nearly 12 000 grids in Europe for the period 19822008. The abi
 lity of LARS-WG to reproduce observed weather was assessed using statistic
 al tests. This dataset was designed for use in conjunction with process-ba
 sed impact models (e.g. crop simulation models) for the assessment of clim
 ate change impacts in Europe. A climate scenario generated by LARS-WG for 
 a grid represents daily weather at a typical site from this grid that is u
 sed for agricultural production. This makes it different from the recently
  developed 25 km gridded dataset for Europe (E-OBS)\, which gives the best
  estimate of grid box averages to enable direct comparison with regional c
 limate models.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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