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SUMMARY:Using knowledge fusion to map avian influenza H5N1 in East and Sou
 theast Asia - Ms. Erjia Ge
DTSTART:20101214T123000Z
DTEND:20101214T140000Z
UID:TALK28403@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Professor Michael Bravo
DESCRIPTION:Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1\, a disease asso
 ciated with high rates of mortality in infected human populations\, poses 
 a serious threat to public health in many parts of the world. This article
  reports findings from a study aimed at improving our understanding of the
  spatial pattern of avian influenza risk in East-Southeast Asia where the 
 disease is both persistent and devastating. It is recognized that many dif
 ferent disciplines have made and continue to make important contributions 
 to our understanding of HPAI H5N1. However\, it remains a challenge to int
 egrate knowledge from different disciplines. This article reports the find
 ings from a study that applies genetic analysis that identifies the evolut
 ion of the H5N1 virus in space and time\, epidemiological analysis that de
 termines socio-ecological factors associated with H5N1 occurrence and stat
 istical cluster analysis that identifies outbreak clusters\, and then appl
 ies a methodology to formally integrate the three sets of findings. The pr
 esent study is novel in two respects. First it uses genetic sequences and 
 space-time data to create a phylogenetic tree to estimate the virus’ abi
 lity to spread. This is the first attempt to provide a mapping of the H5N1
  virus derived from the phylogenetic tree. Second\, by integrating the res
 ults obtained from the three methodologies we are able to generate insight
 s into the occurrence and space-time spread of H5N1 that we believe have a
  higher level of corroboration than is possible when analysis is based on 
 only one methodology. Our research identifies links between the occurrence
  of H5N1 by area and a set of socio-ecological factors including altitude\
 , population density\, poultry density\, as well as the shortest path dist
 ances to inland water\, coastlines\, routes followed by migrating birds\, 
 railways\, and roads. This study seeks to lay a solid foundation for the i
 nter-disciplinary study of this and other influenza outbreaks. It will pro
 vide substantive information for public health bodies with responsibility 
 for containing H5N1 outbreaks.
LOCATION:Seminar Room\, Department of Geography\, Downing Site
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