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SUMMARY:Decision Theory in Conservation Biology\, from Systematic Conserva
 tion Planning to Scenario-Based policy assessments - Piero Visconti\, Glob
 al Mammal Assessment Program in Rome
DTSTART:20120313T100000Z
DTEND:20120313T110000Z
UID:TALK36927@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Microsoft Research Cambridge Talks Admins
DESCRIPTION:Conservation practitioners are constantly faced with hard choi
 ces about what to do\, where and when\, in order to minimize biodiversity 
 loss. Decision-theory can aid this process by formalizing the problem math
 ematically.  Using decision theory\, one can specify the sub-models govern
 ing the system (e.g. land use change\, population dynamics)\, the decision
  variables (e.g. what we can do to prevent biodiversity loss)\,   state va
 riables (e.g. the biodiversity value of an area)\, the costs and constrain
 ts of each action\, and\, most importantly\, the objectives to meet (e.g. 
 protecting at least 20% of each species’ range).  At the fine scale (e.g
 . that of landscapes or small catchments) it is possible to construct a mo
 del of the system and optimize the problem to maximize benefits for biodiv
 ersity. This is the domain of Systematic Conservation Planning where spati
 ally explicit options for conservation are compared to select the optimal 
 combinations of actions required to reach a set of objectives. At broad sc
 ales (e.g. continental or global) the coupled social-ecological systems ar
 e far more complex\, less understood and heterogeneous (e.g.\, governance 
 is not contiguous).  Therefore\, the uncertainty in models and parameters 
 of global systems is such that optimization makes little sense. Scenarios 
 are a useful tool in these circumstances of high uncertainty because they 
 explore the implications of different plausible futures and improve our un
 derstanding of the system. Each scenario can be represented as a different
  set of assumptions about how the system might evolve. For example\, globa
 l socio-economic scenarios are defined by assumptions regarding future hum
 an population growth\, per capita consumption\, energy use\, etc.  The con
 servation implications of different socio-economic and conservation polici
 es can be assessed by estimating projected declines in native vegetation c
 over\, or number of species predicted to go extinct in response to changes
  in socio-economic parameters.\n\nIn this talk I will describe how I have 
 applied Systematic Conservation Planning and Scenario-Based conservation t
 o investigate different conservation problems at a variety of scales (from
  local to global) and to provide theoretical and practical advancement to 
 the field of biodiversity conservation.  I will also talk about my current
  research interests and future directions that are highly relevant to CEES
  and the broader Cambridge conservation community. 
LOCATION:Small lecture theatre\, Microsoft Research Ltd\, 7 J J Thomson Av
 enue (Off Madingley Road)\, Cambridge
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