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SUMMARY:How can we reduce the uncertainty in estimates of aerosol cloud fo
 rcing? - Dr Kirsty Pringle (University of Leeds)
DTSTART:20130603T131500Z
DTEND:20130603T143000Z
UID:TALK43863@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Amanda Maycock
DESCRIPTION:Aerosol cloud forcing is the least well constrained climate fo
 rcing and has\nremained so throughout successive IPCC reports.  This uncer
 tainty has remained\ndespite considerable advances in our understanding of
  atmospheric aerosols\, and\nin spite of the development of increasingly s
 ophisticated models.  Identifying\nsources of uncertainty is the first ste
 p towards reducing uncertainty\, and will\nhelp us produce more robust est
 imates of aerosol cloud forcing.\n\nIn this talk I use results from the Ae
 roCom model inter-comparison project to\nexamine the role of model diversi
 ty in contributing to uncertainty.  I also use\noutput from a single globa
 l model (GLOMAP) and the technique of Gaussian\nprocess emulation to perfo
 rm a perturbed physics experiment  to explore the\nextent to which uncerta
 inties within the model control the simulated aerosol\ndistribution.  In t
 his step we move from examining diversity to understanding\nand quantifyin
 g model uncertainty.\n
LOCATION:Unilever Lecture Theatre\, Department of Chemistry
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