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SUMMARY:Regime-dependent modelling of extremes in the extra-tropical atmos
 pheric circulation - Kwasniok\, F (University of Exeter)
DTSTART:20131030T114500Z
DTEND:20131030T122000Z
UID:TALK48575@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mustapha Amrani
DESCRIPTION:The talk discusses data-based statistical-dynamical modelling 
 of vorticity and wind speed extremes in the extra-tropical atmospheric cir
 culation. The extreme model is conditional on the large-scale flow\, consi
 sting of a collection of local generalised Pareto distributions\, each ass
 ociated with a cluster or regime in the space of large-scale flow variable
 s. The clusters and the parameters of the extreme models are estimated fro
 m data\, either separately or simultaneously. The large-scale flow is repr
 esented by the leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Also tempora
 l clustering of extremes in the different large-scale regimes is investiga
 ted using an inhomogeneous Poisson process model whose rate parameter is c
 onditional on the large-scale flow. The study is performed in the framewor
 k of an intermediate complexity atmospheric model with realistic mean stat
 e\, variability and teleconnection patterns. The methodology can also be a
 pplied to data from GCM scenario simulations\, predicting future extremes.
 \n
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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