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SUMMARY:Measuring housing prices over the long run (correctly) – an inde
 x for Dublin 1900-2015 - Dr Ronan Lyons\, Trinity College Dublin
DTSTART:20150225T160000Z
DTEND:20150225T170000Z
UID:TALK58062@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Clare Eaves
DESCRIPTION:Despite the importance of housing in macroeconomic fluctuation
 s\, underscored by the Great Recession starting in 2008\, there remains a 
 dearth of housing market data prior to the 1970s\, thus depriving social s
 cientists of a wealth of case studies from which to draw insights. Moreove
 r\, those long-run series that do exist are typically based on small sampl
 es and elementary analytical techniques\, meaning they may be of limited r
 eliability.\nThis paper adds to the body of knowledge on housing prices pr
 ior to the 1970s\, constructing for the first time a housing price index f
 or Dublin\, Ireland\, stretching back to 1900. Given the detailed micro-le
 vel nature of the dataset\, it is possible to use modern methods of mix ad
 justment\, in particular the hedonic regression technique\, to construct a
  constant-quality index. By being able to compare this with indices based 
 on simpler measures used in much of the literature so far\, a significant 
 contribution of this paper is the light it sheds on the limitations of exi
 sting house price indices\, such as those for the USA extending back to 18
 90.\nIn addition to this methodological contribution\, trends in the Dubli
 n market are worthy of study in their own right. Ireland's economic histor
 y since 1900 contains a number of shocks and dramatic policy changes. Thes
 e include factors common to other economies\, such as the Great War\, the 
 end of the first wave of financial globalization and the rise of the secon
 d\, but also factors specific to Ireland\, including the War of Independen
 ce and Civil War\, and a switch from autarky to openness\, as well as the 
 Celtic Tiger period and a subsequent economic collapse. With a constant-qu
 ality house price index\, it will now be possible to include house prices 
 in quantitative analyses of Irish history.\n\n\nBiography\n\nRonan Lyons i
 s Assistant Professor of Economics at Trinity College Dublin and an applie
 d urban economist and economic historian. His doctoral thesis at Balliol C
 ollege Oxford was on the economics of Ireland’s property market bubble a
 nd crash. His areas of focus include long-run housing markets and sustaina
 ble and behavioural aspects of real estate markets. His first book\, Next 
 Generation Ireland (co-edited with Ed Burke)\, was published in 2011\, and
  he has published in or refereed for a range of journals\, such as Energy 
 Economics\, the European Review of Economic History and Oxford Economic Pa
 pers. He is a frequent contributor to national and international media on 
 the Irish housing market and is author of the quarterly Daft.ie Reports. H
 e tweets as @ronanlyons.
LOCATION:Mill Lane Lecture Room 1
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