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SUMMARY: Challenges for an improved understanding of sea level extremes an
 d coastal flood mitigation - Dr Kevin Horsburgh\, National Oceanography Ce
 ntre
DTSTART:20151203T161500Z
DTEND:20151203T180000Z
UID:TALK60829@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Ave Lauren
DESCRIPTION:Coastal flooding represent one of the major challenges of clim
 ate change for humanity\, due to mean sea level rise over the coming centu
 ries as well as the potential for changes in storm surge and wave climate.
  It is estimated that in 2005 in the largest 130 coastal cities there were
  40 million people and $3000 billion of assets exposed to the 1 in 100 yea
 r flood event. These figures are predicted to rise to 150 million people a
 nd $35000 billion of assets by the year 2070. The most high impact example
 s of coastal flooding occur due to large storm events\, often coinciding w
 ith extremely high tides. Any change in the statistics of flood frequency 
 or severity will impact severely on economic and social systems. It is the
 refore crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges\
 , and to have confidence in datasets used for extreme sea level statistics
 . \n\nThis demands a consistent methodology to obtain a global climatology
  of storm surges combined with advanced statistical methods for estimating
  extreme sea levels. This presentation will outline a global project direc
 ted by the IOC-WMO Joint Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorolog
 y (JCOMM) expert team on waves and coastal hazards. I will present analysi
 s of tide gauge data from the UK\, Netherlands\, Germany and Atlantic seab
 oard of the USA to provide baseline statistics for Atlantic storm surges. 
 These methods can be extended to other regions including those affected by
  tropical cyclones. Much previous research has focussed on the process of 
 tide-surge interaction\, and it is now widely accepted that the physical b
 asis of tide-surge interaction is that a phase shift of the tidal signal r
 epresents the effect of the surge on the tide. This presentation will show
  conclusively and for the first time that in extra-tropical regions the st
 orm surge (when measured correctly) is independent from the tide. This imp
 lies that any storm surge can occur with any tide\, although the probabili
 ty may be very small.\n\nFinally I will present plans to use a global tide
 -surge numerical model to provide a coherent global picture of storm surge
  climate. This could provide the basis of globally consistent vulnerabilit
 y assessments that help disaster and risk reduction (DRR) agencies\, and w
 ill also help planners and policy makers devise ways to mitigate coastal f
 lood risk in the face of rising sea levels.
LOCATION:Small Lecture Theatre\, Department of Geography\, Downing Site
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