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SUMMARY:[TMS Symposium] Smashing the Racket: Detecting Match-fixing in Ten
 nis via In-play Betting Irregularities  - Dr. Jonathan Nelson (ATASS Sport
 s) 
DTSTART:20160221T112000Z
DTEND:20160221T120500Z
UID:TALK64756@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Jason Kwong
DESCRIPTION:An unfortunate consequence of the recent growth in tennis bett
 ing markets has been a heightened\nincentive for match-fixing - particular
 ly at lower levels of the sport\, where earnings are modest\, and\nwhere t
 he market for one match may dwarf the prize money for an entire tournament
 . Against this\nbackdrop\, an unscrupulous player may be tempted to profit
  from their position of influence by secretly\nagreeing to "throw" a parti
 cular match\, with a complicit third party betting on the result.\nThis ta
 lk summarises the results of a match-fixing study spanning over 5\,000 in-
 play tennis\nbetting markets. After developing a natural point-by-point pr
 obabilistic model\, featuring novel\nmechanisms for selecting parameters r
 obustly from the data\, we demonstrate that the observed market\ntrajector
 ies correlate extremely closely with this model. We argue that substantial
  discrepancies\nrepresent a "red flag" that something is amiss - either an
  injury\, or something more covert. We also\nprovide visualisations of rec
 ent matches where the market evolved pathologically\, and assess the\nevid
 ence that these matches were fixed.\n
LOCATION:Winstanley Lecture Theatre\, Trinity College
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