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SUMMARY:On-line estimation of an optimal treatment allocation strategy for
  the control of white-nose syndrome in ba - Eric Laber (North Carolina Sta
 te University)
DTSTART:20160826T131000Z
DTEND:20160826T135000Z
UID:TALK67073@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:<span>Co-authors: Nick J. Meyer (North Carolina State  Univers
 ity)\, Brian J. Reich (North Carolina State University)\,  Krishna Pacific
 i (North Carolina State University)\, John Drake  (University of Georgia)\
 , Jaime Collazo (North Carolina State  University) <br></span> <br>Emergin
 g infectious diseases are responsible for high morbidity and  mortality\, 
 economic damages to affected countries\, and are a major vulnerability  fo
 r global stability. Technological advances have made it possible to collec
 t\,  curate\, and access large amounts of data on the progression of an in
 fectious  disease. We derive a framework for using this data in real-time 
 to inform  disease management. We formalize a treatment allocation strateg
 y as a sequence  of functions\, one per treatment period\, that map up-to-
 date information on the  spread of an infectious disease to a subset of lo
 cations for treatment. An  optimal allocation strategy optimizes some cumu
 lative outcome\, e.g.\, the number  of uninfected locations\, the geograph
 ic footprint of the disease\, or the cost of  the epidemic. Estimation of 
 an optimal allocation strategy for an emerging  infectious disease is chal
 lenging because spatial proximity induces interference  among locations\, 
 the number of possible allocations is exponential in the number  of locati
 ons\, and because disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness are  unk
 nown at outbreak. We derive a Bayesian online estimator of the optimal  al
 location strategy that combines simulation-optimization with Thompson  sam
 pling. The proposed estimator performs favorably in simulation experiments
 .  This work is motivated by and illustrated using data on the spread of w
 hite-nose  syndrome a highly fatal infectious disease devastating bat popu
 lations in North  America. <br> <br>Related Links <ul> <li><a target="_bla
 nk" rel="nofollow">http://www.laber-labs.com</a> -  Our home page&nbsp\;</
 li></ul>
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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