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SUMMARY:Exploring mock-juror evidence interpretation and belief updating w
 ithin a probability framework - Kristy Martire (University of New South Wa
 les)
DTSTART:20160831T092000Z
DTEND:20160831T100000Z
UID:TALK67133@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:The examination and evaluation of juror interpretations of evi
 dence presented  at trial is well suited to consideration within a probabi
 lity framework. In  particular Bayes Theorem provides a useful method for 
 setting and comparing  against &lsquo\;normative&rsquo\; expectations rega
 rding the evaluation of evidence weight. It  is also valuable for refining
  experimental designs in line with the theorem. In  this presentation I wi
 ll review two lines of research applying Bayes Theorem to  the belief upda
 ting of lay-decision-makers: The first exploring the alignment  between ex
 pert intentions and lay interpretations of forensic science expert  evalua
 tive opinions expressed using numerical and linguistic likelihood ratios\;
   the second examining juror sensitivity to evidence relevance in the asse
 ssment  of expert testimony. Some benefits and limitations of the applicat
 ion of a  probability frameworks to these issues will be discussed.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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