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SUMMARY:Estimating trace-suspect match probabilities in forensics for sing
 leton Y-STR haplotypes using coalescent theory - Amke Caliebe (Christian-A
 lbrechts-Universität zu Kiel)
DTSTART:20161110T101500Z
DTEND:20161110T110000Z
UID:TALK68921@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:Estimation of match probabilities for singleton haplotypes of 
 lineage markers\, i.e. for haplotypes observed only once in a reference da
 tabase augmented by a suspect profile\, is an important problem in forensi
 c genetics. We compared the performance of four estimators of singleton ma
 tch probabilities for Y-STRs\, namely the count estimator\, both with and 
 without Brenner&rsquo\;s so-called kappa correction\, the surveying estima
 tor\, and a previously proposed\, but rarely used\, coalescent-based appro
 ach implemented in the BATWING software. Extensive simulation with BATWING
  of the underlying population history\, haplotype evolution and subsequent
  database sampling revealed that the coalescent-based approach and Brenner
 &rsquo\;s estimator are characterized by lower bias and lower mean squared
  error than the other two estimators. Moreover\, in contrast to the two co
 unt estimators\, both the surveying and the coalescent-based approach exhi
 bited a good correlation between the estimated and true match probabilitie
 s. However\, although its overall performance is thus better than that of 
 any other recognized method\, the coalescent-based estimator is still very
  computation-intense. Its application in forensic practice therefore will 
 have to be limited to small reference databases\, or to isolated cases of 
 particular interest\, until more powerful algorithms for coalescent simula
 tion have become available.<br><br>
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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