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SUMMARY:The likelihood ratio as a random variable\, with applications to D
 NA mixtures and kinship analysis - Klaas Slooten (Vrije Universiteit Amste
 rdam)
DTSTART:20161110T121500Z
DTEND:20161110T130000Z
UID:TALK68924@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:<span>In  forensic genetics\, as in other areas of forensics\,
  the data to be statistically evaluated are the result of a chance  proces
 s\, and hence one may conceive that they had been different\, resulting in
  another likelihood ratio. Thus\, one thinks of the obtained likelihood  r
 atio in the case at hand as the outcome of a random variable. In this talk
  we will discuss  the way to formalize this intuitive notion\, and show ge
 neral properties  that the resulting distributions of the LR must have. We
  illustrate and apply these  general results both to the evaluation of DNA
   mixtures and to kinship analysis\, two standard applications of forensic
   DNA profiles. For mixtures\, we discuss how model validation can be  aid
 ed by investigation of the obtained likelihood ratios. For kinship  analys
 is we observe that for any pairwise kinship  comparison\, the expected lik
 elihood ratio does not depend on the allele  frequencies of the loci that 
 are used other than through the total  number of alleles. We compare the b
 ehavior of the LR as a function of  the allele frequencies with that of th
 e weight  of evidence\, Log(LR)\, and argue that the WoE is better behaved
 . This  talk is largely based on a series of three papers in International
  Journal of  Legal Medicine co-authored with Thore Egeland.<br><br></span>
 Exclusion probabilities and likelihood ratios with applications to kinship
  problems\, Int. J. Legal Med. 128\, 2014\, 415---425\,<br>Exclusion proba
 bilities and&nbsp\; likelihood ratios with applications to mixtures\, Int.
  J. Legal Med. 130\, 2016\, 39---57\,<br>The likelihood ratio as a random 
 variable for linked markers in kinship analysis\, Int. J. Legal Med. 130\,
  2016\, 1445---1456<br>
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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