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SUMMARY:Practical Bayesian modelling: Populism\, polls\, and petitions.   
 - Tom Gillam (Cantab Capital Partners)
DTSTART:20170308T140000Z
DTEND:20170308T150000Z
UID:TALK69960@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Rachel Furner
DESCRIPTION:In the days after the referendum concerning the departure of t
 he UK from the EU last year\, a petition gathering over 3 million signatur
 es clamoured for a second referendum. This coincided with surveys suggesti
 ng significant voter regret. An analysis with a Bayesian hierarchical mode
 l is presented\, which considers whether indeed the former provides any ev
 idence for or against the latter. The US Presidential election presents an
 other interesting case – we investigate whether the claims of hacking of
  electronic voting platforms were indeed greatly exaggerated.
LOCATION:MR15 Centre for Mathematical Sciences
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