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SUMMARY:Lies\, Damn'd lies and statistics: why it is (almost) impossible t
 o communicate risk ethically - Dr Stephen John\, University Lecturer in th
 e Philosophy of Public Health at the Department of History and Philosophy 
 of Science\, University of Cambridge
DTSTART:20170516T130000Z
DTEND:20170516T143000Z
UID:TALK71572@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Lucy Lloyd
DESCRIPTION:*Dr John's talk will be chaired by Professor Sir David Spiegel
 halter\, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk\, University
  of Cambridge.*\n\nAny claim about an individual's risk of harm is always 
 made relative to some reference class (or body-of-information): there is n
 o such thing as an individual's "actual" risk of lung cancer\, but\, rathe
 r\, his risk "as a smoker" or "as a 40 year old". This familiar claim in t
 he philosophy of statistics gives rise to a simple question: which risk es
 timate should physicians communicate to individuals in the \nclinic? In th
 is paper\, I explain why this question is so difficult\; I\\argue that som
 e standard ways of addressing it in the medical literature are deeply unet
 hical\; and I investigate the relationship between my question and the mor
 e familiar question of how we should present risk information.\n\nUnfortun
 ately\, the term "best" is ambiguous between "most effective way to change
  behaviour" and "most effective way to ensure uptake". Furthermore\, there
  is a surprising silence on an even more fundamental\nquestion: what risks
  should we communicate in the first place?
LOCATION:Large Seminar Room\, Institute of Public Health\, Forvie Site\, R
 obinson Way\, Cambridge CB2 0SR
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