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SUMMARY:Using past decadal temperature changes to understand present and f
 uture climate - Dr Andrew Schurer\, University of Edinburgh
DTSTART:20171106T141500Z
DTEND:20171106T151500Z
UID:TALK77771@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Anja Schmidt
DESCRIPTION:The climate of the past millennium was marked by substantial d
 ecadal variability.  Model simulations can be used to attribute this decad
 al variability to both external forcings and internal variability\; where 
 external forcings include anthropogenic drivers of climate change in addit
 ion to natural forcings such as solar fluctuations and volcanic eruptions.
  In this talk I will present results from an analysis of the last millenni
 um which found an important role for volcanic eruptions and changes in gre
 enhouse gas concentrations but found that the effect of solar variations w
 as likely small. This talk will also discuss the recent “hiatus” perio
 d\, placing it in the context of this long term decadal variability. Final
 ly I will discuss how last millennium climate simulations can be used to c
 alculate an estimate of pre-industrial global temperature. This is importa
 nt because at the Paris climate conference 2015\, nations agreed to holdin
 g increases to well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels and to pur
 sue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees. Given that in th
 is context the “pre-industrial” baseline was not defined I will show t
 he implications on the likelihoods of temperatures exceeding these two thr
 esholds given different assumptions about pre-industrial temperature level
 s.
LOCATION:Pfizer Lecture Theatre\, Department of Chemistry
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