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SUMMARY:Understanding model diversity in CMIP5 projections of westerly win
 ds over the Southern Ocean  - Tom Bracegirdle\, British Antarctic Survey
DTSTART:20180206T140000Z
DTEND:20180206T150000Z
UID:TALK96976@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Gillian Young
DESCRIPTION:The CMIP5 climate models simulate a robust poleward shift and 
 strengthening of the main eddy-driven belt of Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid
 -latitude near-surface westerly winds (hereinafter referred to as the ‘w
 esterly jet’ or ‘jet’) in response to future scenarios of increased 
 greenhouse gas concentrations. Such changes have wide-reaching implication
 s both regionally and globally relating to impacts on\, for example\, upta
 ke of thermal energy and CO2 in the Southern Ocean and ice-ocean interacti
 ons around Antarctica. However\, there is a larger inter-model spread in t
 he magnitude of jet responses.\n\nIn this talk\, recent and current resear
 ch on explaining the CMIP5 diversity in projected 21st century westerly je
 t responses will be discussed. New results will be shown that emphasise th
 e importance of understanding the role of coupled atmosphere/ocean/seaice 
 interactions as a major driver of diversity in jet projections and that a 
 large proportion of this diversity is correlated with interacting baseline
  biases in the atmosphere\, ocean and sea ice. Implication for the potenti
 al to observationally constrain long-term multi-model projections of the w
 esterly jet will be discussed. 
LOCATION:British Antarctic Survey\, Innovation Centre\, Seminar Room 2
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