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CATEGORIES:Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series
SUMMARY:UQ in earth sciences: applications and challenges
- Lindsay Lee (University of Leeds)
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20180109T133000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20180109T143000
UID:TALK97480AThttp://talks.cam.ac.uk
URL:http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/97480
DESCRIPTION:Co-authors: Ken Carslaw (University of Lee
ds)\, Carly Reddington (University of Leeds)\, Ki
rsty Pringle (University of Leeds)\, Graham Mann
(University of Leeds)\, Oliver Wild (Universit
y of Lancaster)\, Edmund Ryan (University of Lanc
aster)\, Philip Stier (University of Oxford)\, Du
ncan Watson-Parris (University of Oxford)
I will introduce some of the
applications of UQ in earth sciences and the chall
enges remaining that could be addressed during the
programme. Earth science models are 3-d dynamic
models whose CPU demands and data storage often li
mits the sample size for UQ. We often choose to u
se averages of the data and dimension reduction to
carry out UQ but it is not always clear that the
uncertainty quantified is the most useful for unce
rtainty reduction or increasing confidence in pred
iction. I will ask whether we should be applying
the same techniques to understand and improve the
model as those used to reduce uncertainty in pred
ictions showing some examples where the end goal i
s different. I will look at UQ when constraint or
calibration is the goal and how we incorporate un
certainty and use &lsquo\;real&rsquo\; data. This
will also raise the question of identifiability i
n our uncertainty quantification and how to deal w
ith and accurately quantify irreducible uncertaint
y. Finally\, I would like to discuss how we vali
date our methods in a meaningful way.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
CONTACT:INI IT
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