BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk// X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:UQ in earth sciences: applications and challenges - Lindsay Lee (U niversity of Leeds) DTSTART:20180109T133000Z DTEND:20180109T143000Z UID:TALK97480@talks.cam.ac.uk CONTACT:INI IT DESCRIPTION:Co-authors: Ken Carslaw (University of Leeds)\, Carly Reddington (University of Leeds)\, Kirsty Pringle (University of Leeds) \, Graham Mann (University of Leeds)\, Oliver Wild (University of Lanca ster)\, Edmund Ryan (University of Lancaster)\, Philip Stier (University of Oxford)\, Duncan Watson-Parris (University of Oxford)

I will introduce some of the applications of UQ in earth scie nces and the challenges remaining that could be addressed during the progr amme. Earth science models are 3-d dynamic models whose CPU demands and d ata storage often limits the sample size for UQ. We often choose to use a verages of the data and dimension reduction to carry out UQ but it is not always clear that the uncertainty quantified is the most useful for uncert ainty reduction or increasing confidence in prediction. I will ask wheth er we should be applying the same techniques to understand and improve the model as those used to reduce uncertainty in predictions showing some exa mples where the end goal is different. I will look at UQ when constraint or calibration is the goal and how we incorporate uncertainty and use &lsq uo\;real&rsquo\; data. This will also raise the question of identifiabili ty in our uncertainty quantification and how to deal with and accurately q uantify irreducible uncertainty. Finally\, I would like to discuss how w e validate our methods in a meaningful way. LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR