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Current use of stochastic methods in operational NWP/climate forecasting: are they physically justifiable

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If you have a question about this talk, please contact Mustapha Amrani .

Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to Climate Modelling and Prediction

The physical basis for current methods of stochastic parametrization in NWP /climate models is reviewed and their plausibility assessed with respect to unresolved or near-gridscale meteorological phenomena. This issue is closely related to that of the predictability of convective scale and mesoscale weather systems. The coarse-graining strategy is described and applied to high-resolution NWP model forecast output and cloud-resolving model simulations of deep, tropical convection. The results are used to provide some constraints on the stochastic backscatter and the perturbed physical tendency approaches.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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