Abstract

Much has been published on mathematical models for epidemics. Many of these include spatial structure and some include stochastic processes. Remarkably few, however, take account of explicit spread in realistic landscapes, yet increasingly, there are demands for models. Accurate realistic simulation necessitates the linkage of spatially-extended epidemiological models with GIS descriptions of landscapes, to map the distribution of hosts as well as weather variables. Effects of pathogens must also be characterised at the landscape scale and determining estimates for the epidemiological parameters necessary for performing simulations requires the use of observational and experimental data.

This talk explores how landscape spatial structure, environment and stochasticity affect spread of pathogens and how models can be used to inform regulator’s decisions for control.

These techniques are then examined using a case study, modelling the spread and control of Sudden Oak Death in the UK.